Australians want less migration

It's that simple

If you want to understand the significant ruptures underway in Australian politics at the moment, you don’t need to look any further than the vastly unpopular program of mass migration.

In a major survey released last week, the IPA asked Australians what they think about immigration. Unsurprisingly, they said that it is way too high, and there is widespread support for significant cuts to our current migration levels (net overseas migration is running at an average of over 424,300 per year under the Albanese government).

At a headline level, 58 per cent of Australians said that they wanted to see migration levels reduced.

This is not new news. As one prominent political scientist put it recently, no matter how you frame the issue or ask the question, Australians always state their preference for lower levels of migration.

There is majority support for the sentiment of cutting migration, but what about that next biggest response of 27 per cent who said that migration levels should “stay about the same”? The question no pollsters ever seem to ask is, “if you want it to stay the same, what number exactly do you think that means?”

So we asked Australians how many migrants they thought were brought into Australia between 2022 and 2025.

51 per cent thought that it was 500,000 or fewer. A further 20 per cent thought that it was one million. They were all wrong. The correct answer is 1.3 million.

A total of 84 per cent of Australians underestimate the number of migrants that are coming into Australia.

Australians already feel like immigration is out of control. When they find out that the number of migrants coming to Australia is much higher than what they thought, it is no surprise that they are furious with the political class.

We asked Australians to nominate the level of migration they would be comfortable with. Four out of five Australians said 100,000 or less per year. Almost a third said that net overseas migration should actually be either zero or negative.

Elites in the media and commentariat class spend an inordinate amount of time telling the Liberal Party that they will never win an election again if they call for cuts to migration levels. They have been complaining about the rise of One Nation in the polls, trying to reassure each other that migrants will never vote for a party that says we have an immigration problem and levels should be cut down.

But this analysis is totally incorrect.

A full 59 per cent of first-generation migrants – Australians who were born overseas – say that they want lower levels of migration. They are more supportive of cutting migration than third-generation Australians are.

The political and media class often appear to have stereotyped migrants, claiming that because they moved to Australia, they are supportive of extremely high levels of migration. But this is simply untrue.

As the IPA’s Daniel Wild said when we released the polling:

First generation migrants are generally the ones who bear the brunt of out-of-control migration policy, whether it’s about housing or their children’s future.

The other thing is to do with our values. Most migrants come to Australia because they love Australia and they want to keep it that way.

But what they’ve seen is the most recent cohort coming in don’t share our values to the same extent they did in the last. So a lot of migrants say that this isn’t the country they wanted to move to.

Migrants themselves support lower rates of migration. Why the Liberal Party has chosen to listen to elites in the media, who mostly support their political opponents, rather than the Australian people on this issue is perplexing.

More worrying is the demonstrated lack of desire to lead public debate on this issue.

Remember that Australians overwhelmingly supported the Voice to Parliament, until the Liberals and Nationals took a stand against it and then made an argument for why Australians should not vote for it.

One Nation have gained significant support in the community almost exclusively because of their stance on immigration. They are consistently nominated as the most capable party when it comes to reducing immigration levels. No wonder: almost 80 per cent of Australians want migration levels of 100,000 or less per year.

The Liberals can’t be nominated as the most capable party on this issue because they have so far lacked the courage to lead the debate. They have listened to the voices of the elites in the media, rather than those of mainstream Australians.

But there is a significant opportunity for them to change this.

The IPA’s survey found that 43 per cent of Australians would be more likely to vote for the Coalition if it adopted a policy of significantly reducing migration.

Among migrants themselves, 44 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition under these circumstances, compared to only 12 per cent who said they would be less likely.

Even among Labor voters, 28 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition if it proposed a significantly lower migration program.

You can find the full survey results here.